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From Defensible to Predictive: How High-Functioning MLR Teams Are Evolving Their Risk Assessment Approach

Written by Lynne Snyder | October 21, 2026

For several years, FDA's Office of Prescription Drug Promotion (OPDP) maintained a relatively low enforcement profile. For example, between 2022 and 2024, the Agency issued only 14 Untitled and Warning Letters, leading many to view promotional enforcement as relatively predictable and infrequent. Beginning in late 2025, however, OPDP activity increased dramatically, with dozens of enforcement actions issued across a range of therapeutic areas and promotional channels. The trend has continued into 2026, with the agency maintaining heightened scrutiny of advertising and promotional communications.

While the increase in enforcement activity has attracted significant industry attention, the more important story may not be the volume of letters themselves. Rather, recent enforcement actions provide a window into how FDA is evaluating promotional communications in today's environment. Across digital, social, consumer-directed, and traditional promotional channels, the agency has consistently signaled a growing focus on whether communications create a truthful and non-misleading net impression, by considering audience interpretation, risk-benefit balance, communication context, and the strength of the supporting evidence.

For years, Medical, Legal, and Regulatory (MLR) review teams have evaluated promotional materials through a familiar lens: Can this claim be substantiated? Can the claim be defended if challenged? Is it consistent with labeling? Does it fall within generally accepted regulatory standards?

Those questions remain important. However, today's promotional environment increasingly requires organizations to ask a different question: What are the regulatory standards that will inform an enforcement action and how is FDA likely to interpret promotional communications?

This question reflects one of the most significant shifts occurring within MLR teams today. Risk assessment is moving from "defensible" to "predictive." Teams are increasingly evaluating not only whether a claim can be justified, but how FDA is likely to interpret the claim and how an average audience is likely to understand it.

As recent enforcement activity has demonstrated, regulatory risk is no longer assessed solely by examining whether individual statements are technically accurate or supported by evidence. Increasingly, regulators are evaluating how claims are presented, how information is consumed across channels, and what conclusions audiences are likely to take away from communication as a whole.

This evolution is not simply a response to increased enforcement activity. It reflects a broader shift in how sophisticated organizations are approaching promotional risk management, governance, and decision-making. It also reflects the expansion of promotional commuications in the new and varied way the public recieves information.

The Shift from Defensible to Predictive

Historically, promotional review has focused on evaluating claims against a defined set of standards: supporting data, approved labeling, applicable guidance, and company policies.

Those fundamentals remain essential. However, many MLR teams are broadening their approach by giving greater weight to recent FDA enforcement trends alongside traditional guidance. This additional perspective helps organizations anticipate how FDA is likely to evaluate promotional communications in today's environment.
Today's commercial environment is significantly more complex than the environment in which many traditional promotional review processes were developed.

Omnichannel campaigns, modular content strategies, personalized digital experiences, social media engagement, and accelerated content production cycles have transformed how promotional information is delivered and consumed.
Perhaps even more than the complexity of the commercial environment, a shift in FDA enforcement priorities has created a need to reevaluate the approach to drug promotion. Recent FDA enforcement actions demonstrate that  the Agency is reevaluating its current priorities in favor of an approach more familiar to the time before a string of First Amendment cases that the Agency lost and the CFL guidance was drafted.

In many cases, the agency's concerns have centered on broader issues such as:

  • Net impression

  • Omission of material information

  • Contextual presentation

  • Visual prominence

  • How data are presented

  • Audience interpretation

This evolution requires MLR teams to think beyond how a claim is written and focus more on how it’s perceived and interpreted in practice. The FDA’s letters sometimes cite multiple deficiencies and can be summarized by the following major themes:

Risk Assessment Is Becoming More Enforcement-Informed

One of the most significant changes occurring within mature MLR organizations is the growing use of enforcement activity as a practical risk assessment tool. In many ways, this is the operational response to the shift toward predictive risk assessment.

Historically, guidance documents often served as the primary reference point for promotional review decisions. Today, enforcement actions provide additional insight into how FDA is applying those principles in real-world situations.

This does not mean that enforcement letters replace regulations or guidance. Rather, high-functioning MLR teams are giving greater weight to enforcement trends in addition to guidance language. They help provide context regarding areas receiving heightened scrutiny and illustrate how FDA evaluates promotional communications under specific circumstances.

As a result, many organizations are increasingly incorporating enforcement trends into their review processes through:

  • Claim matrices

  • Risk frameworks

  • Internal training programs

  • Structured review discussions

Some organizations are also leveraging enforcement heat maps and curated FDA letter libraries to support more consistent and precedent-driven decision-making. These tools help teams move beyond theoretical compliance discussions and ground decisions in observable regulatory patterns.

The goal is not to eliminate risk. It is to make risk decisions more informed, more consistent, and more predictable. Ultimately, the objective is not zero risk, but fewer surprises, faster decisions, and better-chosen risk.

Net Impression is Changing the Conversation

If predictive risk assessment has a defining principle, it may be net impression.
Review teams often focused heavily on individual claims and supporting references. While those elements remain important, FDA continues to reinforce that communications are evaluated as a whole.

MLR teams increasingly recognize that FDA evaluates claims as an average viewer is likely to understand them, not merely based on the technical accuracy of isolated statements.

A promotional piece may contain statements that are individually accurate yet still create a misleading overall impression if:

  • Benefits are emphasized more prominently than risks

  • Visuals imply outcomes not supported by evidence

  • Limitations are minimized

  • Contextual qualifiers are difficult to notice

  • Audience takeaway exceeds what the data support

This is particularly relevant in digital and social media environments, where audiences frequently consume information in abbreviated formats and where visuals, pacing, and user experience significantly influence interpretation.

As promotional channels continue to evolve, MLR teams are increasingly assessing not only what a communication says, but also what an audience is likely to believe after experiencing it.

As promotional channels continue to evolve, MLR teams are increasingly assessing not only what a communication says, but also what an audience is likely to believe after experiencing it. The question is no longer simply, "Is each statement defensible?" Increasingly, the question is, "What conclusion would FDA believe the audience walks away with?"  That distinction is subtle, but it has meaningful implications for risk assessment.

High-Functioning MLR Teams Are Moving Earlier in the Process

If predictive risk assessment changes how decisions are made, it also changes when they are made. Another hallmark of high-functioning MLR organizations is a shift toward earlier engagement, so that commercial teams have a foundation to use prior to developing materials.

Rather than relying exclusively on late-stage review and approval, many organizations are involving Medical, Legal, and Regulatory stakeholders earlier in content development.

This approach allows Regulatory and Medical reviewers to shape claims and messaging before creative concepts are finalized, reducing downstream rework and enforcement exposure.

In practice, this allows teams to:

  • Identify risks sooner

  • Shape messaging before creative concepts are finalized

  • Reduce rework

  • Improve consistency

  • Align stakeholders around risk expectations earlier in the process

Importantly, this evolution does not mean MLR is becoming more restrictive. In many cases, the opposite is true.

When risk assessment is grounded in shared principles, enforcement trends, and cross-functional alignment, teams are often able to make faster and more confident decisions.
The result is not necessarily lower risk tolerance, but more intentional and sustainable risk-taking.

Looking Ahead

As promotional strategies become increasingly digital, personalized, and omnichannel, the expectations placed on MLR teams will continue to evolve. Organizations that rely exclusively on traditional review approaches may find it increasingly difficult to keep pace with the complexity of modern commercialization.

High-functioning MLR teams are responding by shifting from reactive review to proactive risk management. They are treating FDA enforcement trends as predictive signals rather than isolated events, supplementing defensibility-based assessments with enforcement-informed decision-making, evaluating communications through the lens of audience interpretation, and integrating risk discussions earlier in the content development process.

The future of promotional review is not simply about determining whether a claim can be defended. Increasingly, it is about anticipating how regulators, healthcare professionals, patients, and other stakeholders are likely to interpret the communication before it reaches the market.

Organizations that successfully make this transition may be better positioned to navigate regulatory uncertainty while supporting compliant, effective commercialization.

Your Advertising and Promotional Review Partner

Our team of advertising and promotional review experts helps organizations build and strengthen these capabilities through integrated Medical, Legal, Regulatory, and Marketing Operations support. By combining deep promotional review expertise with practical governance, process, and operational experience, we help clients develop scalable, enforcement-informed approaches to promotional risk management that support both compliance and commercial success.